Is China Emerging as the Silent Winner in the India-Pakistan Conflict?
The recent four-day conflict between India and Pakistan may have ended with a ceasefire and mutual claims of military success, but another significant beneficiary appears to be China—particularly its growing defence industry.
The hostilities began on 7 May, following a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which left 26 people, mostly tourists, dead. India responded with military strikes inside Pakistan, codenamed Operation Sindoor, targeting alleged militant infrastructure.
What followed was a series of cross-border aerial and missile exchanges. While India deployed its French-made Rafales and Russian aircraft, Pakistan relied heavily on J-10 and JF-17 fighter jets co-produced with China. Pakistan claims it shot down at least six Indian planes, including Rafales—a claim New Delhi has neither confirmed nor denied.
India maintained it achieved its mission objectives, striking militant bases and returning all pilots safely. Meanwhile, Pakistani officials highlighted the role of Chinese-made jets in repelling Indian air strikes, boosting China’s image as a global arms provider.
China’s Defense Industry Gets a Combat Test
This conflict marked one of the first instances where Chinese fighter jets, specifically the J-10, were deployed in actual combat. Some analysts dubbed it a pivotal moment for China’s defence sector—comparable to breakthroughs in tech seen with companies like DeepSeek in the AI world. Stocks of Chinese jet manufacturer Avic Chengdu surged by up to 40% after the incident.
Retired Chinese military official Zhou Bo noted that the encounter showed China’s growing prowess in weapons technology, saying, “China has some systems that are next to none.” However, not all experts agree that the performance of these jets alone proves their superiority.
Professor Walter Ladwig of King’s College London cautioned against premature conclusions, suggesting that India’s air force appeared more focused on avoiding escalation than achieving total air dominance. He noted that Indian pilots were likely instructed to avoid provoking Pakistan’s high-alert air defences.
Despite no official Chinese comment, social media in China was abuzz with nationalist pride over the perceived success of the J-10 jets in downing Western aircraft, particularly the Rafale.
Strategic Implications and Global Arms Trade
China has heavily invested in Pakistan through the $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and views its ally’s stability as critical. As a result, its close cooperation in this military episode underlines not only economic ties but also deepening defence collaboration.
Security analysts noted that India may not have fully anticipated the scale of Pakistan’s preparedness with Chinese assistance. Imtiaz Gul, a Pakistani analyst, said this coordination caught Indian planners off guard.
Western defence observers have also been watching closely, as any validation of Chinese systems in real combat could reshape global arms trade dynamics. While the U.S. remains the leading arms exporter, China’s emerging presence—particularly in developing nations—has grown. Still, concerns about reliability persist; countries like Myanmar and Nigeria have reported issues with Chinese-made jets in the past.
India’s Strikes and Narrative Control
India, despite reportedly suffering aircraft losses, was able to hit 11 airbases across Pakistan, including sensitive sites like the Nur Khan base near Rawalpindi and Bholari in southern Pakistan. These strikes were reportedly precise, with munitions targeting runways and radar installations.
Analysts like Ladwig argue that while India’s operational execution was effective, it lost control of the media narrative by not disclosing details, allowing Pakistani claims—backed by Chinese technology—to dominate headlines.
The Bigger Picture
This is not the first time India has lost aircraft in a conflict with Pakistan. In 2019, a MiG-21 was shot down, and the pilot was captured—later released. At the time, India claimed to have downed a Pakistani F-16, a claim Islamabad denied.
The current conflict has prompted renewed calls within India to accelerate domestic defence production and modernize its arsenal. It’s particularly cautious as China has already integrated advanced stealth fighters like the J-20 into its own air force, whereas India continues to rely on a mix of imported and older-generation aircraft.
The India-China relationship is already fraught, with border tensions simmering since the 1962 war and the 2020 Galwan Valley clash. The use of Chinese hardware against Indian forces, even indirectly via Pakistan, adds a new layer of complexity to their rivalry.
Conclusion
While India may have achieved its tactical goals in the recent conflict, the broader geopolitical takeaway is China’s enhanced stature as a viable military supplier. The psychological and strategic impact of Chinese fighter jets performing under real combat conditions—especially against Western technology—has amplified Beijing’s defence credibility.
In this regional power play, China didn’t fire a shot directly, yet emerged from the shadows, potentially as the biggest winner.